Following the initial surge in jobless claims in the DC area to start the year, things have slowed notably in the last two weeks (although last week saw a modest rise in the number of people filing for first time benefits)…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, initial claims fell last week – with non-seasonally-adjusted claims now at their lowest since November
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile what the fuck is going on with NY jobless claims data?
Last week claims exploded higher in NY…
And this week they collapsed…
Continuing jobless claims remain range-bound for the last six months around the 1.875mm Americans level…
Source: Bloomberg
We wonder if the discrepancy between DOGE-driven layoffs and the lack of signal in the claims data is related to the buyouts offered to federal workers – which may preclude them from applying for unemployment benefits.
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