It seems that CIA and other US intelligence officials hope to distance themselves from Trump’s Iran war, now with the US-initiated conflict having dragged on for nearly five months (with no end in sight), after White House officials had in the opening days touted a swift, limited military excursion.
They are leaking intelligence to the press which shows they have assessed that current American strikes on Iran are unlikely to change Iran’s negotiating position. With tankers in Hormuz on fire and others too afraid to move, Iran is vowing that it will keep its leverage over the strait at all costs.
The Washington Post report says that “Iran’s government is unlikely to feel significant impact or soften its negotiating position as a result of new rounds of U.S. military strikes like those now underway, according to a new intelligence assessment described by current and former U.S. officials.”
To a large degree this intel assessment is stating the obvious, which should have been well understood far in advance. It seems intel officials want to get it on record that they predict a quagmire as the White House seeks to extricate itself and the global economy from the crisis (of its own making) in the Gulf. Escalation in air strikes will only further stalemate the situation, the intel analysis forecasts.
Stating the obvious is further on full display in lines from the WaPo report like the following: “Analysts at American spy agencies also have concluded that Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war, the officials said — an uneasy dynamic given the increasingly deadly nature of the tit-for-tat hostilities between the two nations. The current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the assessments because of their sensitivity.”
President Trump has reportedly been briefed on the assessment. According to more:
The latest intelligence report was written primarily by the CIA, where analysts have underscored the Tehran regime’s staying power despite the loss of many of its top leaders and much of its military hardware to U.S. and Israeli attacks. In May, a CIA analysis concluded that Iran could survive a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship.
As of Monday, Trump previewed harder hits on Iran to come after the killing of multiple US troops in Jordan and neighboring Iraq. At least two died during a ballistic missile attack in Jordan, while one service member was killed in northern Iraq.
Intelligence agencies don’t need to report on what’s obvious to the naked eye https://t.co/SiH44i1Qj5
— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) July 21, 2026
Again, here’s more of the obvious from the Post report:
Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East, said that the Trump administration appears to believe that if it keeps hitting Iran harder militarily, Tehran eventually will become more flexible. “That assessment is almost certainly incorrect,” said Panikoff, senior director at the Atlantic Council think tank.
Iran’s government has repeatedly shown that its number one priority is survival of the regime, and that it is willing to suffer blows despite the harm to its people and economy, he said.
It’s quite the irony when the hawks have lost even the Atlantic Council.
But a number of more independent-minded analysts have predicted this would spiral into a quagmire from day one.
Trump Bubble still believes Iran will break if they keep bombing it, because that’s how it’s supposed to work. Langley assesses Iran won’t break & Trump is an idiot, and they want it public so that CIA isn’t blamed when shit goes bad to worse.https://t.co/2hqS0xJj7z
— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 21, 2026
“We need to give honest answers to direct questions like this,” University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape said Sunday. “The bottom line is there’s absolutely no doubt President Trump underestimated Iran.”
“We are still continuing to underestimate, in my opinion,” Pape said. “We’re having a very hard time, as countries do, seeing the nationalist fighters on the other side of the battlefield. And those are burning quite bright now in Iran.”