Futures Slide Ahead Of Google Earnings As Brent Surges Above $95

US futures are lower following a chipmaker-powered jump in Tuesday’s session, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling by 0.8%, which appears to be more of a retracement to yesterday’s strength than a move tied to oil or de-risking into today’s Tech earnings. Alphabet earnings are coming after the close. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures slide 0.6%. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed ahead of key earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and IBM due later in the afternoon. Nvidia is underperforming the group as chipmakers declin; GOOG leads. Defensives and Energy are leading; within Cyclicals Financials are outperforming. Today’s macro focus is wholly on GOOG and the AI trade. Crude is leading the commodity complex with WTI at $88/bbl and Brent above $95/bbl for the fist time in 6 weeks, so far Equities have not been derailed as investors continue to think that Trump pivots back to a deal. In metals, Precious is leading Base; Ags are mixed but net higher. Dollar is indicated a touch lower as bond yields are flat. Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

With second-quarter earnings driving markets in an otherwise light week for economic data, Alphabet kicks off megacap tech reporting tonight, with investors focused on cloud growth and the company’s capital spending ambitions. Capex is expected to hit $262 billion in 2027 — nearly three times what it was in 2025, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Google Cloud’s sales are expected to jump nearly 65% from a year ago to $22.4 billion. More coverage can be found in today’s Tech Watch column.

On the other side of AI momentum, IBM will provide more color to the spending delays it flagged in a surprise warning earlier this month. Many on Wall Street expect a cut to outlook, while Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani wonders how much of demand lost in the June quarter is recovered in the second half rather than being “destroyed.” Smaller software company Pegasystems similarly called out clients’ delayed purchasing decisions amid “unprecedented changes in the AI market” on Tuesday evening. Early signs this reporting season are encouraging with a measure of profit guidance momentum climbing to a record, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 2011.

Elsewhere, generic drug manufacturers will have two years to move production to the US or face a 100% import duty from August 2028, Trump said, threatening the supply of low-cost medicines that millions of Americans rely on. In finance, JPMorgan and Goldman are among global banks set to generate more than $100 million in fees from SoftBank’s $40 billion bridge loan for its investment in OpenAI. Private equity firms in some of the world’s hottest markets are facing headwinds as they try to place experienced managers in the companies they buy, hampering the pace of investments at a time when the amount of dry powder that fund managers have to deploy is climbing again.

IBM and Texas Instruments are also due to report after the close. Super Micro Computer Inc. shares jumped in premarket trading on strong demand for its servers. Pegasystems plummeted after the software firm missed earnings estimates.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up by 0.7%, with energy stocks the biggest gainers along with utilities and miners.

Asian stocks gave up almost all of their early Wednesday gains as a rally in regional chip shares lost steam ahead of keenly awaited earnings from global tech heavyweights Alphabet and Tesla. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up just 0.1% after rising as much as 1.7%. Tencent Holdings was the biggest drag on the benchmark as the stock fell the most in over a year and dragged Chinese tech peers lower amid investor concerns over its mobile gaming business. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 3%. South Korea’s Kospi — which has become a closely watched barometer of global sentiment toward AI-linked equities — ended up 0.7% following an intraday surge of over 6%.

A subgauge of Asian chip shares was up 0.3% versus a jump of over 3.5% earlier in the session. Geopolitical tensions likely added to the caution, with oil extending gains as the US and Iran played down the prospect of talks and disruptions to global supplies continued to mount. Vietnamese stocks posted Asia’s steepest decline as margin calls forced leveraged investors to liquidate holdings after the benchmark index extended its losses to more than 13% from this year’s peak. Key gauges in other markets sensitive to higher oil prices — such as the Philippines, Thailand and India — also declined.

“Rising oil prices and jitters ahead of Alphabet earnings, the first big tech to report, may be impacting sentiment,” said Marvin Chen, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Anticipation for upcoming earnings from US tech giants beginning this week may dictate the outlook for whether the recovery in hardware can carry on.”

“The oil-price spike, on the back of continuing reciprocal strikes, is a problem for most Asian net importers,” said Hasnain Malik, head of EM equity and geopolitics strategy at Tellimer.

In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed in London, after edging up in Asian trade. USD/JPY slipped as much as 0.3% to 162.69 following a Bloomberg report that Bank of Japan officials are open to raising the pace of interest rate rises. Still, the yen trades near a 40-year low of 163.24 hit on Tuesday, even as Japanese authorities reiterated threats to intervene in the currency market.

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.63%. European bonds have recovered too and gilts are outperforming, brushing off the rise in oil prices and following a slowdown in UK headline inflation.

In commodities, brent oil is rallying and rose past $95/barrel with few visible signs that relations between the US and Iran are cooling off. The US widened the scope of its attacks on Iran overnight and both sides have played down the prospect of negotiations. The rise for crude initially weighed on stock and bond markets, but that has reversed. Gold is stronger and above $4,100/oz.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight news

Russia is no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine under any future peace deal, people familiar said. The Kremlin views recent confrontational US messaging as a sign Vladimir Putin’s talks with Trump failed to take root.
BoJ officials are open to raising interest rates at a faster pace than the consensus among economists, as the yen’s continued weakness adds to upside inflation risks. The currency rebounded from a 40-year low.
British inflation cooled by more than expected last month as a brief de-escalation in the Iran ‌war reduced fuel prices, but the slowdown is likely to offer only temporary relief to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham as he seeks to ease living costs. Consumer prices rose by 2.6% in annual terms in June — the weakest increase since March 2025 and down from 2.8% in May.
The US widened the scope of its airstrikes on Iran overnight, as President Donald Trump and officials in Tehran signaled a renewal of peace talks is unlikely in the near-term.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday accused Iran of not honoring the Strait of Hormuz deal, while reiterating that Washington was “committed to diplomacy” in the Middle East. He said a key sticking point between Teheran and Washington is that Iran “demands the right” to control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen are ready to attack shipping from positions near the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, according to a global monitoring body for naval security.
President Trump has formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the kingdom’s territory, according to administration officials.
Oil options open interest hit a record as renewed US-Iran hostilities fueled demand for protection against sharp price swings. We see risks to our price forecast as tilted to the upside on net, especially in the near term.
The House passed stopgap funding to keep the government open past the midterm elections. The measure now faces demands for changes in the Senate.
The US House will vote today on a plan to ban members from trading stocks, according to Fox.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following on from the tech-led rebound on Wall Street, which was facilitated by several positive sector-specific headlines, and heading into some of the Mag-7 earnings. ASX 200 mildly gained amid strength in the commodity-related sectors, but with the upside capped by weakness in defensives, as well as domestic consumer and tech stocks. Nikkei 225 initially rallied at the open amid AI-related optimism and after PM Takaichi’s Cabinet approved its first comprehensive economic and fiscal policy guidelines on Tuesday, targeting JPY 370tln in combined public and private investment by 2040, while sentiment was also helped by the stronger-than-expected exports and imports data from Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately mixed, with underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark in a resumption of the rotation out of hyperscalers.

Top Asian News

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won’t comment on specific FX levels, but reiterated will take appropriate action on FX as needed and that they can take bold steps anytime as needed.
China is said to have told all market participants not to re-discount bills at rates below 0.5%, sources said.

European equity futures are mostly in the green, following on from a positive APAC session; upside which comes despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices. For the UK, a cooler/in-line inflation report lessens the need for a BoE hike, though the ongoing geopolitical environment will keep policymakers wary on the path ahead. As it stands, money markets assign a 12% chance of a hike next week, and fully priced in by November. European sectors hold a positive bias; Energy and Insurance tops the pile, whilst Tech lags, joined by Travel & Leisure. European pharma names have been in focus, after US President Trump stated that generic drugs will not be subject to US tariffs until 2028 but will then face 100% levies. Given European pharma names typically produce exclusive/high-patented drugs, for reference, the Indian pharma sector fell as much as 2% in APAC trade. However, the likes of Sandoz (-4%) and Bayer (-2%) have extended lower this morning.

Top European News

The US House will vote today on a plan to ban members from trading stocks, according to Fox.
The US House voted 220-205 to pass a stopgap measure to fund federal agencies through November elections.

G10s are mixed against the USD, with slight outperformance in the EUR and JPY while antipodeans lag. Geopolitics remains constructive for the Greenback on paper with oil prices firmer once again, but the environment fails to translate into Buck strength. USD specific catalysts are light with an extremely light data calendar, so focus will be on GOOGL earnings due after the NY closing bell, potentially a report which could give the Buck a bias.
JPY moved sharply lower, USD/JPY falling 45 pips from recent highs, before paring some of the move. A Bloomberg source report said the BoJ is said to be open to a hike faster than every 6 months, adding the recent JPY weakness is seen as an upside risk to inflation. Despite the move lower in USD/JPY, markets seem inclined to buy dips in the pair, looking to push it towards the 165.00 region, where option structures last week were believed would be the next pain point for the MoF. USD/JPY is a little weaker and just below 163.00.
GBP/USD has been choppy throughout the session and ultimately lacks direction within a 1.3370-1.3390 range, despite a broadly positive inflation report. Headline Y/Y cooled at a faster rate than expected, and 0.5ppts below BoE’s April MPR forecast; Services cooled in line with BoE forecast due to volatile airfares, while core metric stood at 2.6%, in line with BoE forecast. Within the series, one element likely to be welcomed by policymakers is the food component, slowing to its lowest since August 2024, at 1.1ppts below the BoE forecast. Overall, a report which supports the narrative of a BoE unchanged for the remainder of the year.

Fixed Income

Global fixed income benchmarks initially came under pressure given the rise in energy prices (Brent +3.2%); however, fixed income has reversed off its earlier lows, despite a clear driver.
Gilts (-8 ticks) trade at the top end of a 86.33-86.69 range, reversing the earlier losses. The broadly positive inflation figure initially failed to support UK gilts. To recap, headline inflation ticked lower to 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.8%), while core inflation held at 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.5%). Services inflation also fell to 3.6% Y/Y from 3.8%, while food prices fell for a second consecutive month. ING sees the BoE holding rates throughout 2026, with the trend of lower core service inflation and low private-sector wage growth.
JGBs (-18 ticks) traded rangebound throughout the Asia-Pac session but have come under recent pressure following a Bloomberg scoop. The report stated that the BoJ is open to a hike faster than every 6 months, while adding that the recent JPY weakness is seen as an upside risk to inflation. The Bank is close to a stage of anchoring, not spurring inflation, the report added. Following this, markets are fully pricing a rate hike in December. Elsewhere, the 40-year JGB auction drew its strongest demand since March 2025 (b/c 2.82x vs prev. 2.70x).
USTs (-1+ ticks) hold steady, just shy of last week’s trough of 108-17, seemingly unaffected by the higher energy prices.
Germany sells EUR 1.708bln vs exp. EUR 2bln 2.60% 2041 and 3.40% 2047 Bund.
Australia sells AUD 900mln 2.75% 2035 AGBs: b/c 4.37x (prev. 3.65x), average yield 4.9457% (prev. 4.4140%).

Commodities

Crude futures are firmer following several escalatory updates overnight and in the European morning. To recap, US CENTCOM confirmed the US military completed its 11th night of airstrikes against Iran. Iran retaliated by launching drone attacks targeting a US military base at Camp Doha in Kuwait, as well as locations in Bahrain and Jordan. On the diplomatic front, an Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson said there is currently no ongoing negotiation, and it may only involve the exchange of messages. Further, Iranian lawmaker Qashqavi said US President Trump’s claim about Iran’s request for negotiations is not true.
On Hormuz, the Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief says Iran controls the Hormuz Strait and will fire upon American forces.
Further, the Houthis’ maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia saw several tankers moving to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If Bab el-Mandeb, voyages to Asia may only occur via the Suez Canal, which adds notable time and expenses. On that note, CMA CGM (the third-largest container shipping company globally) will impose an emergency fuel surcharge effective August 1 following the renewed escalation of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI and Brent are higher by over 4% intraday at the time of writing, with Brent towards the top end of a USD 91.31-95.24/bbl range, while WTI resides towards the upper end of its 84.44-88.25/bbl band. The Middle East situation and soaring insurance costs have also prompted Dutch TTF to surge, with the front-month closer to EUR 62/MWh vs yesterday’s sub-EUR 60/MWh prints.
Precious metals are firmer intraday but off worst levels, feeling opposing forces from higher oil prices and some technical factors after the yellow metal topped USD 4,100/oz. Spot gold trades between 4,076-4,141/oz at the time of writing. Spot silver is more contained between USD 58.73-60.06/oz. Base metals are mostly firmer to varying degrees, but copper gives back some recent gains amid the rise in oil prices and its subsequent effect on inflation and growth.
3M LME copper trades around the middle of a USD 13,769.00- 13,919.00/t parameter.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.6mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillates +1.8mln (exp. +1.0mln), Gasoline -1.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Cushing -0.7mln.
US President Trump formally approved a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the kingdom’s territory, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
Goldman Sachs analysts raised TTF forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to EUR 60/MWh (prev. saw 41/MWh) and EUR 53/MWh (prev. 40/MWh), following an assumed delay to Persian Gulf LNG export normalisation to October 2026.

Geopolitics: Middle East

US Secretary of State Rubio said China is displeased with Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran is in “a lot” of trouble. Rubio added that China has been cooperative in Iran in some cases. Additionally, he said the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of energy and that Iran can never possess nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is committed to diplomacy in the Middle East and Iran, but added Iran is not serious about talks, while the US remains open and willing to engage in negotiations.
US Secretary of War Hegseth said we have multiple options for striking Iran’s nuclear facilities in Jabal al-Fas.
US CENTCOM said forces conducted the 11th consecutive night of strikes against Iran in which they targeted Iranian military operations centres, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic, with US forces facilitating the movement of approximately 900 vessels and 450mln barrels of crude since early May.
US strikes were reported on Behbahan, Mahshahr, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Bushehr, west of Tabriz and Urmia, while several explosions were heard in Iran’s Tabriz. Furthermore, Arab media reported that missiles were fired from Kuwaiti territory to Iran and drone and missile attacks were reported on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. More recently, there were explosions heard in Sirik.
IRGC said it targeted a tactical radar complex near Ali Al-Salem base and another radar system in Bubiyan Island in Kuwait, while Iran’s army also said it shot down a one-way attack drone in the country’s northwest, according to Tasnim. Additionally, Iran’s military said it struck US targets at Jordan’s Azraq base and Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base, according to Iranian state media.
Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson said there is currently no ongoing negotiation and that it may only involve the exchange of messages, Mehr News reported.
Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief said Iran controls the Hormuz Strait and will fire upon American forces, Press TV reported.
Iran’s top joint military command warned that all interests of the US and its allies in the region will be targeted if the US attacks Iran’s nuclear sites.
Iranian lawmaker Qashqavi said US President Trump’s claim about Iran’s request for negotiations is not true.
Pakistan is said to have sought USD 10bln in US funding after mediating talks with Iran, sources said.
Explosions were reported in Israel’s Eilat during Iran’s missile strike on Jordan’s Aqaba, N12 reported.
Only 3 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports citing Kpler data.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has struck logistics centres involved in the supply of drone components in Russia’s Krasnodar and Stavropol regions.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces attacked a Ukrainian port and two vessels were struck at sea, according to TASS.

Geopolitics: Other

US Secretary of State Rubio said the US disagrees with China’s activities on Taiwan.

Event calendar

It’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I forgot to mention this on Monday, but over the weekend—after 42 years of playing golf and perhaps 100–150k on-course shots—I finally got a hole-in-one. However, it was on a nine-hole, relatively short par-3 course, so I’ve been debating whether it really counts. It didn’t quite feel like enough to justify buying the entire clubhouse a drink (especially as it was busy), so I quietly snuck off, but my kids watched it go in and were impressed—which, as they get older, is an increasingly hard feat to pull off.

I’m not sure which is harder, a hole-in-one or successful negotiations in the current conflict. Indeed, with no breakthroughs regarding Iran, the market focus returned to inflation over the last 24 hours, as Brent crude closed above $90/bbl for the first time in over a month, reviving fears about a wider stagflationary shock. And this morning we’ve seen a further rise above $92/bbl, so there’s little sign of oil prices easing as the US confirmed overnight they’d completed an 11th consecutive evening of strikes against Iran. To be fair, equities performed very well considering that, thanks to a chip stock rebound, but markets still priced in a more hawkish path for central banks, with bond yields moving higher around the world as a result. Indeed, several hit multi-year highs yesterday, with the US 30 real yield (+1.0bps) reaching a post-2008 high of 2.93%, whilst France’s 10yr yield (+1.8bps) closed at a post-2009 high of 3.96%. Standby for Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings after the US close. The former’s capex plans, and the market reaction to them, will be fascinating.
The latest oil moves come as the strikes between the US and Iran have showed no sign of easing, and there are still no concrete signs of a peace deal either. Admittedly, it was reported by AP that Iran’s interior minister had met with mediators in Pakistan, as attempts are being made to try and revive the interim deal reached between the US and Iran last month. And it was later confirmed by the office of Pakistan’s PM that he’d met with Iran’s interior minister. However, Trump later played down any chance of a meeting saying “They want to desperately meet and until they’re ready to meet in a meaningful way we have no interest”. So with no agreements in the pipeline, investors moved to price in a more sustained supply shock. For instance, the front-end Brent future was up +2.01% to $91.01/bbl by yesterday’s close, whilst the 6-month Brent future (+0.32%) also hit a 1-month high of $81.26/bbl. And that’s continued this morning, with Brent crude up another +1.24% to $92.14/bbl.

Whilst oil prices were moving higher, those inflation fears were exacerbated by the ongoing climb in natural gas prices. Indeed, the European front-end natural gas future (+1.57%) was up for a 7th consecutive day to €59.66/MWh, its highest level in 4 months. Moreover, several other commodities saw some big moves yesterday, with gold (+1.72%) up to $4,077/oz, and silver (+4.20%) up to $58.79/oz, whilst copper (+3.37%) also moved higher. So all that pushed near-term inflation expectations higher, with the 1yr US inflation swap (+0.8bps) up to 2.04%, whilst the 1yr Euro Inflation swap (+1.7bps) moved up to 2.59%.

That backdrop meant investors priced in more Fed rate hikes, and speculation even returned about a potential rate hike next week. For instance, the probability of a July hike was back up to 26% by the close, the highest since last week’s downside surprise in the US CPI print. It was at 45% the day before CPI and as low as 10% the day after. Speaking of the Fed, our US economists are currently conducting their pre-FOMC survey, which includes a few questions on the Fed’s new task forces. If you have a few minutes, they’d appreciate your input to the survey, which you can find here.

With that in mind, US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+5.5bps) up to 4.26%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.6bps) rose to a two-month high of 4.63%. And for real yields there were some even bigger milestones, as the 2yr real yield (+3.6bps) rose to 2.33%, its highest since September 2024, and the 10yr real yield (+2.2bps) was up to 2.35%, its highest since October 2023.

Whilst sovereign bonds had a bad day, it was a different story for global equities, which surged thanks to a sharp bounceback in chip stocks. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (+5.21%) posted its best daily performance in the last month, which helped to lift US equities more broadly. So the S&P 500 was up a sizeable +0.89% on the day, even as a majority of companies in the index lost ground. And over in Europe, tech stocks also helped to power the recovery, with the STOXX 600 up +0.56% on the day, with the STOXX Technology Index up +3.29%.

Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen that recovery in chip stocks continue, with South Korea’s KOSPI (+5.07%) posting a strong gain for a second consecutive day. Moreover, other indices have also risen, including the Nikkei (+1.03%), the CSI 300 (+0.67%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.50%). However, the Hang Seng is down -0.83%, and US equity futures are also pointing slightly lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%. Otherwise, the Japanese yen weakened to levels last seen in 1986, closing at 163.17 per US dollar yesterday, where it remains this morning. And this morning, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that “Our policy remains completely unchanged: We will take appropriate and bold action at any time, should the need arise.” That weakness in the yen is a good opportunity to remind you of Mapping the World’s Prices 2026, which shows just how astonishingly cheap Japan now is relative to its DM peers and even versus many EM ones. See the report here.

Elsewhere yesterday, UK gilts outperformed as markets reacted to the previous evening’s announcement that John Healey would be the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, recovering after a very weak Monday. Although Healey was a surprise choice, given his name wasn’t really in the frame beforehand, markets were reassured by his previous experience as a Treasury minister in the 2000s, and his commitment to the fiscal rules. Indeed, new PM Andy Burnham said yesterday at cabinet that “We’ve got to show that our commitment to the fiscal rules is real, and we’re prepared to make difficult decisions in relation to that”. So the 10yr gilt yield fell -0.2bps on the day to 5.03%. Net net they are +7.9bps on the week so far, the same as 10yr US Treasuries but a bigger rise than for Bunds (+3.9bps) and OATs (+3.6bps). Meanwhile, we also heard the new government’s first economic announcement yesterday, as they announced that VAT of 5% would be removed on domestic electricity bills from October 1.

Otherwise in Europe, sovereign bonds sold off as the focus was on the ongoing rise in oil and gas prices. So yields on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+1.8bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) all rose yesterday, with the 10yr OAT yield at a post-2009 high of 3.96%. Meanwhile at the front-end, the 2yr German yield (+1.7bps) closed at 2.80%, its highest level in almost two years. That came as the German ZEW survey surprised on the upside yesterday, with the expectations component up to 26.3 in July (vs. 15.3 expected), which is the highest it’s been since February.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

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Futures Slide Ahead Of Google Earnings As Brent Surges Above $95

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