Arabica coffee futures have soared over the past six weeks, reaching their highest level since February as traders closely monitor tightening supplies, adverse weather conditions in Brazil and other top growers, and uncertainty surrounding upcoming harvests, which has fueled a short squeeze.
Arabica, the premium bean used by Starbucks, Dunkin’, and other chains, jumped as much as 6.2% to $4.21 on Monday, with momentum easing on Tuesday as $4.20 emerged as a line of resistance. Notably, futures have surged nearly 50% since early August.
In a mid-August report, we cited Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, who warned that adverse weather across key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas, had experienced “frost damage” severe enough to be a potential “death blow” to the 2026 harvest.
Coffee Analyst Warns Brazil Frost Could Deliver “Death Blow” To 2026 Harvest https://t.co/h33Dp3r7Ge
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2025
Wallengren recently warned that “multiple and continuing weather disasters across the world’s Arabica and Robusta producing countries” are producing an extreme situation where “there is ZERO POSSIBILTY for global production to recover until 2030 and it’s a FACT that The World IS Running Out of Coffee !!“
STOCK WATCH #KC: Certified Arabica #coffee stocks at ICE again DOWN with another big drawback of over 6K lots on Sep 10 and now at 679.5K, down close to 20% from about 844K in early July – and with the multiple and continuing weather disasters across the world’s Arabica and… https://t.co/hAXqZjzK6H pic.twitter.com/vPLRF0ybGs
— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) September 11, 2025
In robusta markets…
*BREAKING MARKET ANALYSIS #KC: World #Coffee Prices To Hit 10-Year Bull Cycle as Brazil Disaster Continues to Worsen, Making it IMPOSSIBLE for the Global Supply Chain to recover until 2030 earliest !!
*Aug. 18, 2025 (SpillingTheBeans)–Those in the global #coffee trade who… pic.twitter.com/LulUj7faq0— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) August 19, 2025
According to Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, the weather in Brazil is dry but not abnormally so. She told Bloomberg that the market is “on anxiety” because of separate weather concerns that may impact bean sizes.
While the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report forecasts global coffee output at around 178.7 million bags in 2025–26, weather risks remain on analysts’ minds. Ganes noted that the rally in coffee futures is being driven more by financial positioning and tariffs than by fundamentals.
“We should be seeing prices coming down unless there is some major issue with the flowering for the Brazilian 26-27 crop, and that story isn’t written yet. Even with the couple of cold snaps, you could still wind up with a decent crop,” Ganes said, adding, “To me, this is all financial, and it’s being tripped up by the tariffs.”
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