OAN Staff James Meyers
3:14 PM – Thursday, October 17, 2024
The betting market for the 2024 presidential election is swinging toward 45th President Donald Trump. Offshore bettors continue to drive up that probability because they predict Trump is better off winning swing states.
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On Thursday, Trump’s chances of taking back the White House hit 61% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, for the first time since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted Trump would likely win as of Thursday morning.
Polymarket stated on Tuesday in its weekly “Oracle” newsletter that the big differences in the betting markets aren’t the same as wide margins in the polls.
“While Trump’s lead is the largest it has been since the summer, it’s important not to overstate its significance. A 55-45 prediction market edge is not nearly as strong as a five-point polling lead,” the newsletter said. “Small moves in the polls are magnified into large swings in the odds.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s social media company, Truth Social, has seen its stock price increase 93% after gaining a favorable advantage in the betting markets on October 4th. As of Wednesday, the stock was up almost 16%, trading at $31.26 a share.
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
In 2016, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose and in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat giant 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
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