A few weeks ago, media flunkies were riding high as the polls seemed to be converging. President Joe Biden enjoyed a bump after his State of the Union Address, and quickly narrowed Donald Trump’s lead in critical swing states. Hoping to keep up the momentum, Biden World launched a media blitz, outspending the Trump camp nearly three-to-one over the past month on campaign ads. But the spending flex is more a sign of desperation than anything else. The polls will undoubtedly converge as the election nears, but it will have nothing to do with how much each candidate spends.

By March 6, the day after Super Tuesday, Trump had secured the GOP nomination. The next day, Biden gave his State of the Union address — the re-match campaign that had been quietly brewing for years finally kicked off in earnest. Since then, the Biden campaign spent $27.2 million on ad buys for the presidential race, according to CNN. Much of that spend went to critical swing states: Michigan ($4.1 million), Pennsylvania ($3.9 million), Arizona ($2.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.2 million) and Georgia ($2.2 million).

Meanwhile, Trump spent a comparatively measly sum of $9.3 million over the same period. Trump has also focused on swing states, CNN noted, with over $1 million going to rebut Biden’s push in Pennsylvania. While outside groups have also spent around $3 million on Trump ads across swing states, the total figure still pales in comparison to Biden’s blitz.

At the same time, polls are once again widening. Bloomberg set off a firestorm in the beginning of April, with a poll showing Trump’s lead disintegrating in swing states. Biden cut 5 to 10 point leads down to only a single point; he even led in Wisconsin. But now, with its latest poll, even Bloomberg had to admit that “Biden’s gains against Trump vanish” amidst “deep economic pessimism.” vanish against Trump.” Trump is once again winning swing states by as much as 10 points.

Despite massive spending, Biden wound up back right where he started. There are a few reasons why.

There’s a big difference between paid media and earned media. As a character, Biden’s a snoozefest — that is, when he even gets out and about at all. When he does, hack journos rush to shore up whatever the talking of the day is, but the only real unpredictable earned media he gets is negative. When he falls, or trips, or says something insane, they have to cover it. Meanwhile, Trump flies all around the country creating a spectacle (until he got trapped in New York, that is). As much as they love to self-flagellate over “platforming” Trump’s “lies,” corporate media hacks still can’t resist giving air time. Even the local channels cover him; you can’t blame them, he’s just too entertaining. No matter what news you watch, Trump’s front of mind, and increasingly his proposals are starting to look the more sane option — even to squishy moderates.

Whatever media Trump pays for, he probably gets triple that in earned media just by being himself.

This is exactly how it played out in 2016. Trump’s earned media was unlike anything our political system had ever seen. Jeb Bush had the entire weight of the GOP establishment behind him; in their minds, he was anointed heir to the throne. His campaign spent $130 million running for president in 2016, the bulk of which ($84 million) went to advertising. Yet after a few exchanges on the debate stage, Trump not only ended his campaign but destroyed his entire political career (and probably the Bush family legacy as well).

So Biden’s media blitz isn’t really meant to bring new voters in. It’s meant to stop Democrats’ hemorrhaging swing voters and independents, young voters, and minorities — all increasingly gravitating toward Trump.  Mostly, Biden used his recent airtime to bash Trump; really, what else does have besides the whole fascists-rising shtick? But he also hit on abortion and how Republicans only care about helping the rich. His aim isn’t to make people believe him, but rather just be too fearful of the other guy.

It’s now just a given that political campaigns require massive spending, each cycle bigger than the last. In 2016, candidates spent a collective $2.6 billion. By 2020, that figure jumped to $9 billion. Still about six months out, a whopping $10 billion has already been spent on campaigns, according to AdImpact data. The conventional wisdom is so ingrained that candidates don’t even stop to think: will it work? It’s merely a game of mutually assured destruction; spend more than your candidate, as both push each other to the brink.

Trump seems to have broken the cycle, but Biden is still living under the old delusions. It’s just another reason to put your money on Trump this November.