By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst
China stocks may be poised for higher ground after a dismal year.
Chinese investors may be glad to say goodbye to 2023, given the serial disappointments they faced during a year that opened with a wave of optimism that the nation’s abrupt reopening from Covid curbs will lead to the sort of robust recovery other major economies had experienced when they ended such restrictions. There were indeed strong initial surges for activity and for asset prices, but those soon dissolved into a relentless downhill slide.
This year is opening with a gloomier tone — house sales continue to decline, while China’s official manufacturing and services PMIs each came in below expectations for December. But perhaps that provides a clearer path for the bleeding to stop, and for some sort of sustained turnaround to develop. Indeed, almost a third of 417 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest survey say they will increase their China investments over the next 12 months.
For equities, in particular, the Shanghai Composite has now bounced off of the 2,800 era on three occasions over the past two years. And the China Composite PMI is holding above the 50 line to remain in expansion territory, even if only slightly above.
For China and the wider Asia-Pacific, the question of whether the region’s biggest economy can put the worst behind it looms as a key one for 2024, and perhaps even beyond.
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