For Rona Kaufman, the signs are everywhere that more Jews feel abandoned by the Democratic Party and may vote for Republican Donald Trump.
It’s in her Facebook feed. It’s in the discomfort she observed during a question-and-answer at a recent Democratic Party campaign event in Pittsburgh. It’s in her own family.
“The family that is my generation and older generations, I don’t think anybody is voting for Harris, and we’ve never voted Republican, ever,” Kaufman, 49, said, referring to Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris. “My sister has a Trump sign outside her house, and that is a huge shift.”
How big a shift? Surveys continue to find that most Jewish voters still support the Democratic ticket, and Kaufman acknowledges that she’s an exception.
Still, any shift could have enormous implications in Pennsylvania, where tens of thousands of votes decided the past two presidential elections. Many Jewish voters say the 2024 presidential election is like no other in memory, coming amid the growing fallout from Hamas’ attack on Israelis last year.
Jews represent a sliver of the voting-age population in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the so-called blue wall of states that Democrats have come to rely on in recent presidential elections. In a close election, they are a big enough constituency that the campaigns of Harris and Trump see the potential for any slippage to swing a close contest.
That has forced Harris to walk a line between traditional Democratic constituencies with strong feelings about the war in Gaza, both Jews and Arab Americans — balancing support for Israel with outrage over the deaths of Israeli and Palestinian civilians and destruction in the region. The Biden administration has been pressuring Israel to end its attacks, which continued last week with the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli troops.
Trump has sought to connect with Jewish voters, claiming that Harris “doesn’t like” Jewish people while asserting he would be the “best friend Jewish Americans have ever had in the White House.”
In the past, surveys have shown that Jews overwhelmingly vote Democratic. A Pew Research Center poll released last month found that about two-thirds of Jewish voters back Harris. In 2020, about 7 in 10 Jewish voters supported President Joe Biden, according to AP VoteCast.
The question is whether that has changed, as Jews now see Israel’s survival in a new light as its war with Hamas widens to Hezbollah and possibly Iran.
That has put a new focus on the relationship between Israel and the U.S., which continues to provide military aid. And many Jews say rising acts of antisemitism in the United States and anti-Israel protests sweeping across cities and college campuses — including in Philadelphia — have made them feel unsafe.
In Pennsylvania, still fresh in many minds is a gunman absorbed by white supremacist ideology murdering 11 worshippers at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh in 2018, the deadliest attack on Jews in U.S. history.
As Pennsylvania plays a central role in the election, many say they’ve never seen such outreach from campaigns as they have now.
From Trump on down, Republicans are attempting to win over Jewish voters by highlighting a Democratic Party torn between its traditional and unconditional support for Israel and a growing faction that has accused Israel of war crimes in Gaza, called for Israel to unconditionally stop attacking Hamas, and demanded that the U.S. end its military support for Israel.
For some Jews who typically vote Democratic, that has resonated.
“I think that there are folks who are reluctant Trump voters who feel scared as Jews in this country,” said Jeremy Kazzaz, a Pittsburgh resident and Harris supporter.
Kazzaz, however, said Harris has a long record of fighting antisemitism that is relatively unknown to many voters.
He pointed out that the Biden administration tapped her husband, Doug Emhoff, who is Jewish, to lead a task force to develop a strategy to fight antisemitism well before Hamas attacked Israel. Emhoff has been a key surrogate, campaigning in front of Jewish audiences in the Philadelphia suburbs and speaking at the groundbreaking of a new complex replacing Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life synagogue.
Still, where Harris’ supporters see strong support of Israel — for instance, the Biden administration sent a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery to Israel, along with the troops needed to operate it — others see conditional support.
That includes Biden urging Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear program or oil fields. At the same time, Biden has stressed his administration’s support for Israel and, in her remarks on the anniversary of Hamas’ attack, Harris said she’ll “always ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and that I will always work to ensure the safety and security of the Jewish people here and around the world.”
Steve Rosenberg, of Philadelphia, who voted for Trump in 2016 and then Biden in 2020, will vote for Trump in 2024. In large part, Rosenberg sees Biden’s lifting of Trump-era sanctions on Iran as providing the cash for the Islamic Republic to finance a war against Israel. Trump imposed the sanctions after voiding a treaty the Obama administration had reached to slow Iran’s progress toward nuclear weapons, which he called a bad deal.
“The question is, ‘Who is better off today than four years ago?’” Rosenberg said. “And the answer is Iran and the mullahs and their proxies, and it’s because Biden and Kamala Harris have capitulated to Iran.”
Kaufman, a self-described progressive who lives in Pittsburgh’s heavily Jewish Squirrel Hill neighborhood, never thought she would vote for Trump.
But now, she expects Trump will continue a hardline stance against Iran — which she calls an imminent threat to democracy, human rights and western civilization — and worries that Harris will appease Iran and pander to the party’s left wing.
Jews with very strong connections to Israel — her parents were born there and her daughter just finished a two-year eight-month mandatory service with the Israeli army — are similarly conflicted over supporting Harris, Kaufman said.
“I’m saying it out loud everywhere, but most people aren’t saying it out loud.”
Some Jewish supporters of Harris view Trump as a potential threat to democracy. They express concerns about persecution, citing comments by Trump that they find troubling, such as his stance on using the military against domestic threats, remarks about dual loyalty among Jews, and his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Some view Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, to maintain his position as a concern. Others express caution regarding his connections to authoritarian leaders and point to his dinner at Mar-a-Lago with Nick Fuentes and rapper Ye, both known for making antisemitic statements.
“That’s the conversation that I’m having with Jews,” said Rabbi Beth Janus of Philadelphia.
Janus said Jews she knows are excited that a woman could be president and that she’s married to a Jewish man. Conversely, Trump’s support for Israel is transactional, she said.
“When it serves his needs, his objectives, he supports Israel,” Janus said. “But if it didn’t, then he wouldn’t support Israel.”
