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Hurricanes are a fact of life for people living along America’s Atlantic Coast. Of course, the risk of a hurricane making landfall varies depending where people live along that expansive coastline.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley, uses data from the Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities database at Colorado State University to show county-level risk (the red parts) of a hurricane impact, along with population centers along the coast (the spikes).

Potential Hurricane Hotspots

While a hurricane can make landfall anywhere along the coast, there are places where the probability of that happening is higher in 2024.

Below is the full list of counties and states, which includes other countries in North America as well, including Mexico (which, at the time of publishing, is being battered by Hurricane Beryl).

State County Hurricanes (1880-2020) Avg Probability of Hurricane Impact (2024)
Alabama   46 43%
Alabama Baldwin 28 29%
Alabama Mobile 28 29%
Connecticut   11 13%
Connecticut Fairfield 9 10%
Connecticut Middlesex 10 11%
Connecticut New Haven 11 13%
Connecticut New London 10 11%
Delaware   9 10%
Delaware Kent 4 5%
Delaware New Castle 1 1%
Delaware Sussex 9 10%
Florida   115 75%
Florida Bay 26 27%
Florida Brevard 26 27%
Florida Broward 36 35%
Florida Charlotte 26 27%
Florida Citrus 26 27%
Florida Collier 34 34%
Florida Dixie 19 21%
Florida Duval 22 23%
Florida Escambia 27 28%
Florida Flagler 22 23%
Florida Franklin 21 23%
Florida Gulf 23 24%
Florida Hernando 26 27%
Florida Hillsborough 27 28%
Florida Indian River 26 27%
Florida Jefferson 14 16%
Florida Lee 28 29%
Florida Levy 22 23%
Florida Manatee 28 29%
Florida Martin 27 28%
Florida Miami-Dade 37 36%
Florida Monroe 50 46%
Florida Nassau 20 22%
Florida Okaloosa 24 25%
Florida Palm Beach 34 34%
Florida Pasco 26 27%
Florida Pinellas 26 27%
Florida Santa Rosa 25 26%
Florida Sarasota 26 27%
Florida St. Johns 23 24%
Florida St. Lucie 23 24%
Florida Taylor 16 18%
Florida Volusia 26 27%
Florida Wakulla 18 20%
Florida Walton 26 27%
Georgia   51 46%
Georgia Bryan 21 23%
Georgia Camden 18 20%
Georgia Chatham 22 23%
Georgia Glynn 15 17%
Georgia Liberty 22 23%
Georgia McIntosh 21 23%
Louisiana   68 56%
Louisiana Cameron 23 24%
Louisiana Iberia 25 26%
Louisiana Jefferson 30 31%
Louisiana Lafourche 33 33%
Louisiana Orleans 23 24%
Louisiana Plaquemines 35 35%
Louisiana St. Bernard 33 33%
Louisiana St. Mary 27 28%
Louisiana St. Tammany 24 25%
Louisiana Terrebonne 34 34%
Louisiana Vermilion 24 25%
Maine   10 11%
Maine Cumberland 3 4%
Maine Hancock 6 7%
Maine Knox 6 7%
Maine Lincoln 3 4%
Maine Sagadahoc 3 4%
Maine Waldo 3 4%
Maine Washington 6 7%
Maine York 5 6%
Maryland   16 18%
Maryland Anne Arundel 1 1%
Maryland Baltimore 1 1%
Maryland Baltimore City 1 1%
Maryland Calvert 2 2%
Maryland Cecil 1 1%
Maryland Dorchester 5 6%
Maryland Harford 0 0%
Maryland Kent 0 0%
Maryland Queen Anne’s 1 1%
Maryland Somerset 9 10%
Maryland St. Mary’s 3 4%
Maryland Talbot 1 1%
Maryland Wicomico 6 7%
Maryland Worcester 13 15%
Massachusetts   22 23%
Massachusetts Barnstable 13 15%
Massachusetts Dukes 11 13%
Massachusetts Essex 7 8%
Massachusetts Nantucket 14 16%
Massachusetts Norfolk 7 8%
Massachusetts Plymouth 10 11%
Massachusetts Suffolk 7 8%
Mississippi   47 43%
Mississippi Hancock 22 23%
Mississippi Harrison 26 27%
Mississippi Jackson 24 25%
New Hampshire   8 9%
New Hampshire Rockingham 5 6%
New Jersey   10 11%
New Jersey Atlantic 10 11%
New Jersey Burlington 8 9%
New Jersey Cape May 10 11%
New Jersey Essex 4 5%
New Jersey Hudson 4 5%
New Jersey Middlesex 5 6%
New Jersey Monmouth 9 10%
New Jersey Ocean 10 11%
New Jersey Salem 2 2%
New Jersey Union 4 5%
New York   14 16%
New York Bronx 7 8%
New York Kings 6 7%
New York Nassau 8 9%
New York New York 9 10%
New York Queens 8 9%
New York Richmond 7 8%
New York Suffolk 12 14%
New York Westchester 7 8%
North Carolina   68 56%
North Carolina Beaufort 22 23%
North Carolina Bertie 15 17%
North Carolina Brunswick 32 32%
North Carolina Camden 20 22%
North Carolina Carteret 46 43%
North Carolina Chowan 17 19%
North Carolina Craven 31 31%
North Carolina Currituck 22 23%
North Carolina Dare 45 42%
North Carolina Gates 12 14%
North Carolina Hertford 11 13%
North Carolina Hyde 45 42%
North Carolina New Hanover 32 32%
North Carolina Onslow 35 35%
North Carolina Pamlico 31 31%
North Carolina Pasquotank 19 21%
North Carolina Pender 35 35%
North Carolina Perquimans 18 20%
North Carolina Tyrrell 26 27%
North Carolina Washington 19 21%
Rhode Island   11 13%
Rhode Island Bristol 8 9%
Rhode Island Kent 8 9%
Rhode Island Newport 10 11%
Rhode Island Providence 9 10%
Rhode Island Washington/South 9 10%
South Carolina   48 44%
South Carolina Beaufort 22 23%
South Carolina Charleston 33 33%
South Carolina Colleton 26 27%
South Carolina Georgetown 27 28%
South Carolina Horry 32 32%
South Carolina Jasper 21 23%
Texas   64 54%
Texas Aransas 16 18%
Texas Brazoria 25 26%
Texas Calhoun 20 22%
Texas Cameron 20 22%
Texas Chambers 24 25%
Texas Galveston 29 30%
Texas Harris 24 25%
Texas Jefferson 25 26%
Texas Kenedy 21 23%
Texas Kleberg 19 21%
Texas Matagorda 27 28%
Texas Nueces 21 23%
Texas Refugio 14 16%
Texas San Patricio 17 19%
Texas Willacy 19 21%
Virginia   31 31%
Virginia Accomack 13 15%
Virginia Gloucester 7 8%
Virginia Hampton 12 14%
Virginia Lancaster 5 6%
Virginia Mathews 7 8%
Virginia Middlesex 5 6%
Virginia Newport News 8 9%
Virginia Norfolk 12 14%
Virginia Northampton 13 15%
Virginia Northumberland 5 6%
Virginia Poquoson 9 10%
Virginia Portsmouth 10 11%
Virginia Suffolk 11 13%
Virginia Virginia Beach 18 20%
Virginia York 9 10%
Canada   48 44%
New Brunswick   11 13%
Newfoundland and Labrador   24 25%
Nova Scotia   44 41%
Prince Edward Island   9 10%
Mexico   83 64%
Campeche   33 33%
Quintana Roo   57 50%
Tabasco   8 9%
Tamaulipas   43 41%
Veracruz   32 32%
Yucatan   43 41%
Anguilla   28 29%
Antigua and Barbuda   23 24%
Aruba   7 8%
Bahamas, The   106 72%
Barbados   9 10%
Belize   30 31%
Bermuda   42 40%
Bonaire   5 6%
Cabo Verde   4 5%
Cayman Islands   37 36%
Costa Rica   3 4%
Cuba   102 71%
Curacao   6 7%
Dominica   21 23%
Dominican Republic   61 52%
Grenada   10 11%
Guadeloupe   28 29%
Guatemala   23 24%
Haiti   42 40%
Honduras   46 43%
Jamaica   36 35%
Martinique   17 19%
Montserrat   22 23%
Nicaragua   25 26%
Panama   1 1%
Puerto Rico   38 37%
Saba   23 24%
Saint Kitts and Nevis   32 32%
Saint Lucia   15 17%
Saint Martin   23 24%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines   13 15%
Sint Eustatius   23 24%
Sint Maarten   23 24%
Trinidad and Tobago   3 4%
Turks and Caicos   32 32%
UK Virgin Islands   35 35%
US Virgin Islands   30 31%

The counties that make up the southern tip of Florida have the highest risk of a major hurricane impact. Monroe County, which includes Key West, has a 46% chance of a hurricane impact, and a 27% chance of a major hurricane impact.

Another potential hurricane hotspot is the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. Three counties that include the Outer Banks find themselves in the top five ranking for hurricane impact risk. Unlike Florida though, the risk of a major hurricane impact is much lower.

The three counties along the coast near Houston, Texas, have between 25–30% risk of a hurricane impact. Galveston is no stranger to hurricane activity. The constant threat of storms making impact was one reason Houston—which is further inland—grew to be the much bigger city.

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