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Following July’s buying spree, expectations are for a slowdown in retail sales in August as BofA omnipotent analysts forecast a decline of 0.1% MoM (worse than the consensus +0.1% MoM) with gas prices rising the only saving grace (ex-autos and gas expected to be down 0.5% MoM).,

BUT… for once, BofA were wrong as the party kept going in August with retail sales exploding 0.6% MoM (smashing the +0.1% exp) – rising for the 5th month in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

That is a 2.5% YoY gain (thank the lord for credit cards, right?)

Retail sales beat across the board with Core (ex-autos and gas) up 0.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp) and the ‘control group’ – which is used for GDP calcs – rose 0.1% MoM (vs expectations for a 0.1% decline).

Under the hood, the big driver was a 5.2% MoM jump in spending at gasoline stations

Source: Bloomberg

And non-store retailers were flat in August after surging in July on Amazon’s Prime Day

Finally, remember this data is ‘nominal’ not ‘real’. So be careful at how excited you get about this data.


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