Having surprised to the downside (-0.1% MoM) in October, analysts expected another small decline (-0.1% MoM) for November as the resumption of student loan payments (in October) begins to weigh on the ‘resilient’ consumer.
BofA’s omniscient analysts were more optimistic with upside surprises expected, especially ‘core’…
Once again, BofA was right as headline Retail Sales rose 0.3% MoM in November (but this was helped by a downward revision to -0.2% MoM in October), pushing retail sales up 4.1% YoY (nominal)…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Retail Sales were a major beat – just as BofA warned – Ex-Autos +0.2% MoM (-0.1% MoM exp) and Ex-Autos and Gas +0.6% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp). This pushed the core retail sales up 4.9% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
The Control Group – which filters into GDP – also beat.
Under the hood, Gasoline Stations were the biggest drag (lower prices)…
…while Food Services and Nonstore Retailers dominated the upside MoM…
All seems a little too ‘hot’ for Goldilocks?
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