The Donald Trump-Joe Biden match up is perhaps the most polled election in American history. For the past several years, nearly all of the polls have shared a common dynamic – one that fell firmly in Biden’s favor. However, that began to change in September.

There’s two major ways to gauge a politician’s viability. The first is his favorability/approval rating as a stand alone figure. The second is relative – his likely support compared to a rival. For as long as he’s been a political figure, Trump has always failed to secure majority support on both metrics. The common wisdom around Trump holds that he is unable to break out of a mid-40s poll ceiling, making victory akin to threading a needle. It is only possible with extremely narrow margins in a handful of key states.

This is how he won in 2016, taking Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all by less than a point and all with less than a majority. That’s also how he lost in 2020, losing all three states, as well as Arizona, by extremely narrow margins. For the entire time in between, he stayed within that mid-40s polling range.

From 2017 to 2020, his approval rating hovered between 42 and 45 percent, while his disapproval rating always stood at over 50 percent, based on a RealClear aggregate of all major polling. His overall average was a modest 42.8 percent for the entirety of his first term. Since polling began in 2015, his aggregate favorability has only broken 45 percent one time for a brief period in April 2022. This is not the profile of a candidate headed to decisive victory.

But the polling match-up against Biden tells a different story. Here, Trump long stood in mid-40s as well according to the RealClear averages. Since polling began in October 2019 all the way to the day of the election, Trump only broke 45 percent briefly around the early days of COVID. This likely reflects a rally-around-the-flag effect as the country united against the unknown, but it quickly dipped back down once the media settled on a definitive narrative.

As match-up polling for 2024 re-started last year, pundits and analysts dug in their heels. Democrats and the corporate media long found solace in the idea that Trump had so much baggage that he could never change enough minds to break through his poll ceiling. Up until a month ago they could be forgiven for their hubris, as Trump hovered between 42 and 45 percent support versus Biden in the 2024 RealClear average. But Trump has never been one to lay down and accept conventional wisdom.

In early November, he edged toward 46 percent support before rocketing up to a career high of 47.4 percent by the end of the month. The most recent average calculation from Dec. 6 shows him at 46.6 percent support against Biden’s 44.5 percent. Trump now has over a 2 point lead compared to Biden’s near 9.8 point lead on the same day in 2019.

This is where the relative nature of polling really becomes key. Biden has remained stable throughout this polling cycle; he is also hovering between 42 and 45 percent according to RealClear. Trump’s gains aren’t peeling away Biden voters, but rather gaining from the small number of undecideds still left in a polarized America. This is the key voting block he will need and that pundits were so confident he could never win over. While they might not necessarily shower him with adoration as an individual, they nevertheless think Biden is the relatively unviable choice.

What’s more, a look at the individual polls within the average is even more damning. In many cases, Trump is breaking through the majority support threshold. No less than 10 polls – including Harvard/Harris, Reuters/Ipsos, and Marquette – have him up over 50 percent. The latest Messenger/HarrisX polls from December shows him with the biggest lead yet – 53 percent, a six point lead over Biden. This is the profile of a candidate who cannot just win, but soar to victory by a decisive margin and with a substantial popular mandate.

Despite all the expert pontificating, Trump has surpassed his ceiling and seems to have a clear advantage heading into the election. Now, it appears Biden is the one who must re-orient his campaign – and governing – strategy to break through his poll ceiling. This would require a moderate pivot in tone atop actually good governance as the incumbent. But this too is a delicate needle to thread. He will struggle to appeal to undecideds without alienating the far-left base, who demand everything from a Green Revolution to U.S. support for Hamas terrorists. With all the talk about Republican divisions, it’s the Democrats who are much more likely to face a civil war this election cycle.