Video game stocks have been battered so far this year, with Electronic Arts the only major name in positive territory and even then only marginally higher. The Roundhill Video Games ETF is down about 14.8% YTD, highlighting industry-wide weakness as investors await a potential revival sparked by Take-Two’s release of Grand Theft Auto VI this upcoming fall.
The latest report from Bloomberg, citing new data from market research company Circana, shows the video game market in the US contracted by 21% in June, its steepest monthly decline since 2022. The decline was driven by higher hardware prices, which softened demand, and by a difficult comparison with Nintendo’s Switch 2 launch one year ago.
Console spending plunged 62%, while content purchases fell to $3.9 billion, below levels recorded before the Switch 2 debut. Subscriptions were the only content category to grow. Total industry spending was down 1% for the year.
Nintendo continued expanding the Switch 2 catalog, but rising memory and component costs are compressing margins. Its shares have fallen more than 50% from last summer’s record, and the company has announced global price increases for the fall.
It’s not just Nintendo facing margin erosion because of the memory chip shortage that is forcing companies to raise prices; Xbox and PlayStation are also affected – and these price hikes come just four months before the next iteration of Grand Theft Auto is released.
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In recent weeks, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma announced 3,000 layoffs, warning, “Our business today is not healthy. We must reset Xbox.” Against that dismal backdrop, whether Grand Theft Auto VI can single-handedly revive an industry remains an open question.