Even as the Trump White House is busy in Europe trying to get NATO and EU states on board its 28-point peace plan which controversially demands the Ukrainian side cede territory, the Europeans have leaked their own counter-plan which proposes much less in the way of compromise with Russia.
The UK, France, and Germany have put forward their own counter-proposal, and the draft differs sharply from the US version. Like with prior proposed deals, it contains terms which Moscow is expected to flatly reject, mostly notably it does not provide guarantees that Ukraine will stay out of NATO, and also absent is the ceding of any territory.
While Trump’s plan makes clear that Ukraine must renounce ever joining NATO, the European draft states that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership “depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.” This intentionally ambiguous language of course leaves leaves the door wide open, dependent on when such consensus is reached.
On giving up land, the European document says that any discussions on territorial exchanges would start from the current Line of Contact. Freezing the front lines is something President Zelensky has wanted to do all along. Moscow has seen in this a way of allowing Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm.
Zelensky is already not happy with the US version of the peace plan, as Ukraine would surrender the areas of Donbas it still controls, and the front lines would be frozen in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – where Russian forces also holds territory.
However, one place where the US and European drafts do appear to be in lock-step is the one area the Kremlin is likely to take serious issue to: Washington and the West would provide security guarantee for Ukraine resembling NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defense commitment.
Kiev has meanwhile been given until Thursday to provide its official response to the 28-point plan, and currently it simply looks like it is seeking the backing of Europe in coming up with a more robust pro-Ukraine plan. Trump wants to see the whole thing agreed to by Thanksgiving Day, but this is unlikely to happen, given also the leaks and ongoing blame-game over ‘compromising’ too much with Russia.
But all serious analysts are in agreement that Russia is dominating on the battlefield, leaving Ukraine with few options but to seek serious compromise to end the war. For example, one observer while commenting on the European plan notes it has no teeth (from Russia’s perspective) and predictably Moscow will not see anything attractive in such a deal, which resembles previously failed ones, as it has:
- No ban on Ukraine joining NATO
- Ukraine is “not be forced to be neutral”
- Ukraine is free to invite “friendly forces”
- Ceasefire & freezing current front lines
- “No restriction” on size of Ukrainian military etc.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, surely having heard of a European counter-plan in the works, did not look impressed while in Europe on Sunday…
Marco Rubio:
I have not seen any “counter plan” from Europe. pic.twitter.com/8c5IpVo2F6
— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 23, 2025
The controversy over the US plan has seen the renewal of accusations that Trump is being too “Russia-friendly” – but journalist Michael Tracey has noted:
There’s some curious propaganda going on to make people think the Ukraine “peace proposal” is a pro-Russian scheme, when it commits the US militarily, economically, politically to Ukraine beyond what virtually anyone had contemplated, and severely curtails Russian war objectives.
The BBC on Monday has conveyed mixed messaging regarding “progress” on the US 28-point plan:
- Media have reported an updated peace plan drafted by European countries, which includes new terms such as the US providing security guarantee – the BBC has not independently verified its content
- Donald Trump has teased “big progress” after the weekend’s peace talks, saying “something good just may be happening”
- Russia says it has yet to receive any new peace plans, but is open to US contacts and talks
- Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia’s reported demands to recognise the territory they have “stolen” is the “main problem” stopping an agreement
As for President Vladimir Putin, he has said it could serve as a basis for talks. “I think it could also become the foundation for a final peace settlement, but we haven’t discussed the text thoroughly,” he told Russia’s Security Council on Friday. But he expressed skepticism that Kiev and its European backers will accept it, as they “still believe they can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield.”
But the Kremlin has still indicated that aspects of the plan do show that finally the US side “has been listening to us” and is a step in the right direction.
Below is the full draft text of the alleged European counter-plan as circulated by Reuters.
* * *
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty to be reconfirmed.
2. There will be a total and complete non-aggression agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.
(Point 3 of U.S. plan is deleted. A draft of that plan seen by Reuters said: “There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.”)
4. After a peace agreement is signed, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunity for connectivity and future economic opportunity.
5. Ukraine will receive robust Security Guarantees
6. Size of Ukraine military to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime.
7. Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.
8. NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.
9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland
10. US guarantee that mirrors Article 5
a. US to receive compensation for the guarantee
b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee
c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and any kind of recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to Europe while this is being evaluated
12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to:
a. Creation of Ukraine Development fund to invest in high growth industries including technology, data centres and Al efforts
b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities
c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas
d. Infrastructure development
e. Mineral and natural resource extraction
f. A special financing package will be developed by the World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia to be progressively re-integrated into the global economy
a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.
b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, datacenters, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, as well as various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
c. Russia to be invited back into the G8
14. Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
15. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement
16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine
17. The United States and Russia agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start
18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT
19. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be shared equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.
20. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
21. Territories
Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact.
22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation
23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine’s use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues:
a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of All for All
b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children
c. There will be a family reunification program
d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict
25. Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
26. Provision will be made to address the suffering of victims of the conflict.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.
28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.
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