Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
The long bond verdict is finally in. Jobs and growth outweigh inflation.
US Treasury Yield Notes
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Between August 5 and August 21, bond yields for US treasuries of 2 year duration or longer all rose.
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The period between August 21 and September 2 was very painful for 30-year long bond holders but favorable for the rest.
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Starting September 2, there was a bond market rally across the board.
Treasury Yield Changes Since September 2
What Happened?
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The ISM report on September 2 showed weak hiring.
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The BLS JOLTS repot on September 3 revealed unemployment was above job openings for the first time since the pandemic.
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The ADP report on September 4 was weak, especially small businesses.
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The nonfarm payroll report on September 5 was a disaster.
The trend on the 10-year treasury note and the 30-year long bond are back in sync. Both are headed lower.
The discrepancy resolved to job weakness over inflation concerns, but Powell will be cautious unless there is a collapse.
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